Thursday, October 14, 2010
Previous session overview
The dollar fell broadly Wednesday as the likelihood of more monetary easing in the U.S. contrasted with the euro zone's readiness to end extraordinary support measures.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, released Tuesday afternoon, continued to cast a pall over the greenback. Fed decision-makers said it would be "appropriate to provide additional monetary policy accommodation" if unemployment remained too high or prices too low.
Better-than-expected industrial data from the euro zone and core machinery numbers from Japan added to the lift in risk sentiment that kept the ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, down at levels last seen in January.
The dollar increased slightly against the yen as verbal warnings of possible intervention from Japanese authorities continue to keep investors alert. The dollar also reached a fresh all-time low against the Swiss franc trading at CHF0.9544 in Asian trading.
EURUSD gives back some gains as it retreats further from USD1.40. Pair trade flat, at USD1.3917 from USD1.3914 late Tue.
The dollar was at JPY81.84 from JPY81.74, while the euro was at JPY114.20 from JPY113.74. The U.K. pound was at USD1.5826 from USD1.5796.
Market expectation
Investors now expect the Fed to announce further asset-purchase programs to stimulate the sluggish U.S. economy, perhaps at its next meeting on Nov. 3. Such measures hurt the dollar because U.S. interest rates will remain ultra-low for a longer period, steering investors toward higher-yielding currencies.
Attention is now focused on a speech to be delivered Friday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, with investors awaiting further signals on the timing and extent of U.S. monetary easing. The euro jumped back above USD1.40 in early trading but couldn't hold that level, although it is ahead on the day.
The dollar, trading now near parity with the Canadian dollar, is making new lows for the downtrend from the May high of CAD1.0857. Trading below CAD0.9984 would point the dollar down to CAD0.9959. But a move above CAD1.0050 would, instead, be the signal for a rally to CAD1.0092.
Most important events of the day
| Oct 13 | Count. | Event | For | Unit | Imp. | Act. | Cons. | Prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 |  EU | EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Rehn speaks at EU-Russia Economic talks |  | |||||
| 08:10 |  US | Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks on Business Innovation | | |||||
| 09:00 |  PT | HICP | Sep | % y/y | | 2 | 2 | |
| 09:00 | PT | CPI | Sep | % m/m | | 0.2 | -0.2 | |
| 09:00 | PT | CPI | Sep | % y/y | | 1.9 | 1.9 | |
| 09:00 | PT | HICP | Sep | % m/m | | -0.1 | -0.1 | |
| 09:30 |  IE | Prime Minister Cowen answers questions in Parliament | | |||||
| 12:30 | US | Import prices | Sept | % m/m |  | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.6 |
| 12:30 |  CA | House Price Index | Aug | % m/m | | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 23:50 |  JP | CGPI | Sep | % y/y | |
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